Q3 2025 Disruption Outlook: The Chinese EV exports reshaping international auto markets may eventually land in the U.S.

The U.S. auto industry, as one of the last markets that has not surrendered meaningful market share to China-made vehicles, may be the final frontier for Chinese automakers. If Chinese manufacturers bring their electric vehicles to the U.S. — and they elect the franchise model — dealers will have the chance to get in on the ground floor of a potentially lucrative opportunity even as they manage shifting revenue mix among their portfolio of brands. Automakers, however, face a direct threat of lost market share. In the large and mature U.S. market, with low growth rates, any volume gains by Chinese manufacturers would come directly from already established vehicle brands. By contrast, dealers can offset declines from their legacy-brand stores with gains from dealerships representing new entrants. And those entrants seem likely to choose franchising. Chinese automakers will need to rapidly develop distribution scope, scale and expertise, and the established U.S. franchise dealer network is well positioned to serve as their retailing channel.